2019-05-09 16:15
Gathering difficult to wash white: trapping pyramid schemes and relying on ＂disciples＂ to seize the market
[Direct Report Network Beijing May 9th] (Beijing Business Daily) self-proclaimed "members of the first e-commerce" of the collection of micro-shops, in the gray area of MLM, the decline in gross margin is even more intense. On May 3, the market was listed on the NASDAQ in the United States, but the aura of capital is difficult to cover up the industry's doubts about the phenomenon of cloud marketing, viral transmission and other diseases. It is still unknown whether the payment of 398 yuan will become a "disciple" of the gathering members. It is still impossible to push the gathering to the throne of "100 billion". In addition, the vague membership rights also make many challenges in the course of the member e-commerce.
Under the aura of capital
The aura of Nasdaq seems to blur the boundaries between questioning and recognition in a short period of time. On May 3, member e-commerce gathered in the US Nasdaq, the stock code is "YJ", the opening price of 13.42 US dollars, 22% higher than the issue price of 11 US dollars. On May 7, the closing price was $13.57.
The spotlights in the capital market also illuminate the "scars" behind the gathering. According to the prospectus, the collection was launched in May 2015, with a total loss of 186.7 million yuan for three years. During 2016-2018, the net losses were respectively 24.68 million yuan, 105 million yuan and 56.326 million yuan. Although the losses have narrowed, the losses in successive years are still an indisputable fact.
It is mentioned in the prospectus that the company may continue to suffer losses in the future and cannot guarantee a net profit or positive cash flow from the business activities in the future. The company's future investment in performance infrastructure and technology may also lead to difficulties in making profits in the short term. In addition, during the three years, the gross profit margin of goods gathered declined significantly. In 2016-2018, the gross profit of commodities was 150 million yuan, 739 million yuan, and 681 million yuan respectively. The gross profit margin of commodities fell from 13.29% to 5.98%, a decrease of 7.31 percentage points. .
It is worth noting that when the collection relies on self-operated commodities to raise the gross profit margin as much as possible, the cost of self-built supply chain has risen sharply, and the inventory pressure has surged. According to the prospectus, in 2016-2018, the stocks collected were 97.443 million yuan, 333 million yuan and 676 million yuan respectively. The high inventory risk can be imagined. By the end of 2018, the number of 40 self-operated warehouses has reached 40. In the next three years, 300 pre-warehouses will be put across the country to achieve full coverage of prefecture-level cities.
Under the pressure of a number of data, the transcripts in terms of revenue and GMV (total trading volume) are pretty. The revenues in 2016 and 2017 were 1.284 billion yuan and 6.444 billion yuan respectively, and the revenue in 2018 was 130.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102%. In 2016-2018, the GMVs were 1.8 billion, 9.6 billion and 22.7 billion, respectively. In 2018, the GMV increased by 136.46%.
"From the prospectus and the stock market in recent days, the capital market is more recognized for the gathering." He Guangfeng, an investment industry analyst, said that from the current market trend, the initial price of 11 dollars per share, currently closing at 13.57 US dollars, Compared with the current share price of the initial price, there is still a premium. The overall capital market is still relatively good at gathering, or the initial pricing is reasonable, but it does not rule out that the share price will fall after the gathering. In fact, before the IPO, the stock circulation was reduced from 13.5 million shares to 11 million shares.
At the same time, the transformation of membership e-commerce has not clarified price concessions, membership rights and so on. Compared with paid members such as Ali and JD.com, the focus is on encouraging members to develop offline.
For the reduction of the number of new shares to be sold, as well as the adjustment of the gathering, the Beijing Business Daily reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge. As of press time, the above-mentioned person in charge did not give a clear response.
Relying on "disciples" to seize the market
Buyers and paying members have built up the possibility of boarding the capital market. Members are like “believers” who see the collection as “faith” and increase at a rate visible to the naked eye. As of December 31, 2018, the number of paid members reached 7.4 million, and member revenue was 1.552 billion yuan, which accounted for 11.92% of total revenue. Members also contributed 66.4% of GMV to the gathering.
7.4 million people are a paid member and a role as a distributor. After paying 398 yuan to become a member, these members get the goods with the same value as the membership fee provided by the platform. Once the new user is introduced as a member, the old member can get a certain commission. The membership system has made many users a "disciple". In 2016, the number of registered users was 2.5 million, rising to 16.9 million in 2017 and 23.2 million in 2018.
These "disciples" are the backing of the expansion of the territory, but the expansion of distribution rebates has a direct connection with the pyramid scheme. In 2017, due to the “three-level distribution” of the proceeds from the layered product extraction, it received a 9.58 million ticket from the regulatory authorities. At that time, the gathering explained that the ticket had been issued as early as 2015, and since February 2016, the controversial part of the ground push has been rectified.
After the rectification and transformation, from the current model, the level of distribution rebates has been reduced, and the model of pulling the head and developing the level remains. Even if the Nasdaq's bells are loud, many question-and-answer platforms are even search pages, and there must be a pyramid scheme among the many related words gathered. The market and consumers have never stopped asking whether “the gathering is a pyramid scheme”.
Perhaps the traces of scrubbing three-level distribution, from social e-commerce to member e-commerce, are somewhat related to the convergence of the gathering to embrace the capital market. In the prospectus, when the investment risk is listed, it is said that “if our business model is found to violate applicable laws and regulations, our business, financial status and operational results will be significantly adversely affected”. In addition, from the description of this issue in the prospectus, "the relevant regulatory authorities in Hangzhou verbally confirm that the current business activities are legal."
It is understood that after the reorganization and rectification, the membership level changes from low to high to the owner, supervisor and manager, and the supervisor and manager become the “training fee” through the rebates obtained by the new one. The owner can become a supervisor when the new owner reaches 100 people; he can become a manager after the number of supervisors reaches 30. According to the proportion of the new commission, the 398 yuan membership fee, the supervisor can get 150 yuan, the on-line manager can get 60 yuan. At the same time, supervisors and managers can also obtain 15% and 5% of the team's sales profits. Supervisors and managers will sign up for part-time labor contracts and collect training and service fees from the gathering.
Zhao Zhenying, a researcher at the National Engineering Laboratory of e-commerce transaction technology, explained that the main income of all members is realizing social traffic, not head-to-head fees. Therefore, although the collection is the same as the pyramid scheme, the principle of multiplication is used, but the essence is still certain with MLM. The difference.
Shortage of membership rights
On the way to the transformation of member e-commerce, in addition to gathering for themselves, the doubts about whether the gathering is a member e-commerce are one after another. Jingdong Plus members, Ali 88 super members, Amazon Prime members, and even some paid membership systems for vertical platforms will have detailed descriptions of member discounts and enjoyment of benefits. E-commerce platforms that form an ecological effect will also include resources within the system. Offered to paid members together. From this point of comparison, there is no outstanding resource advantage.
At present, the collection has set different names for members, but its rights are particularly vague. According to the rules of the Aggregate App, both the paying member and the buyer are members, the former is a "diamond member" and the latter is a "VIP member". When the members are promoted to become "diamond members", they will be listed as a diamond member (year card) to get 30 yuan of cloud currency, share the highest return of 40%, and enjoy the wholesale price of 5,000 yuan per year. In addition, the collection does not show the membership rights in terms of product information, and does not list the differences in prices and services when “diamond members” and “VIP members” purchase a single item.
It is worth noting that the gathering has paid a price to the member e-commerce. The prospectus shows that after the transition, the number of buyers gathered has decreased from 14.4 million to 6.3 million.
Zhao Zhenying said that compared with Ali, and many other e-commerce companies, the gathering itself is the purchaser, unified one-generation, through the members to integrate the flow, form the members' own customer assets, and then realize the realization through the goods and services provided by the gathering. . The basic logic behind the former is traditional marketing, while the latter mainly uses the principle of multiplication. Gathered members can earn consumption and promotion qualifications by paying a membership fee of more than 300 yuan, and realizing the realization of their own social resources by developing new members and consumer rebates can be regarded as a member e-commerce.
In order to gain long-term development in the competition of Ali, JD, and even a lot of competition, it is still necessary to operate users in the medium of products. Zhao Zhenying emphasized that the essence of the business model is the empowerment of members' social assets realization process. In this process, product quality is the key, and it is also the prerequisite for stabilizing users and maintaining the sustainable growth of user groups.
Shortage of membership rights
On the way to the transformation of member e-commerce, in addition to gathering for themselves, the doubts about whether the gathering is a member e-commerce are one after another. Jingdong Plus members, Ali 88 super members, Amazon Prime members, and even some paid membership systems for vertical platforms will have detailed descriptions of member discounts and enjoyment of benefits. E-commerce platforms that form an ecological effect will also include resources within the system. Offered to paid members together. From this point of comparison, there is no outstanding resource advantage.
At present, the collection has set different names for members, but its rights are particularly vague. According to the rules of the Aggregate App, both the paying member and the buyer are members, the former is a "diamond member" and the latter is a "VIP member". When the members are promoted to become "diamond members", they will be listed as a diamond member (year card) to get 30 yuan of cloud currency, share the highest return of 40%, and enjoy the wholesale price of 5,000 yuan per year. In addition, the collection does not show the membership rights in terms of product information, and does not list the differences in prices and services when “diamond members” and “VIP members” purchase a single item.
It is worth noting that the gathering has paid a price to the member e-commerce. The prospectus shows that after the transition, the number of buyers gathered has decreased from 14.4 million to 6.3 million.
Zhao Zhenying said that compared with Ali, and many other e-commerce companies, the gathering itself is the purchaser, unified one-generation, through the members to integrate the flow, form the members' own customer assets, and then realize the realization through the goods and services provided by the gathering. . The basic logic behind the former is traditional marketing, while the latter mainly uses the principle of multiplication. Gathered members can earn consumption and promotion qualifications by paying a membership fee of more than 300 yuan, and realizing the realization of their own social resources by developing new members and consumer rebates can be regarded as a member e-commerce.
In order to gain long-term development in the competition of Ali, JD, and even a lot of competition, it is still necessary to operate users in the medium of products. Zhao Zhenying emphasized that the essence of the business model is the empowerment of members' social assets realization process. In this process, product quality is the key, and it is also the prerequisite for stabilizing users and maintaining the sustainable growth of user groups.
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