[news] October 17th report Beijing (economic information daily) National Day period, Beijing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuxi, Ji'nan, Hefei, Wuhan and many other city has released a new market regulation policy, to restart credit limit restriction. In the face of this round of regulation, the market Public opinions are divergent. shared concerns:, including the purchase of credit limit can stabilize the property market? Will bring prices as well as the rapid decline in the macroeconomic? Obviously, the answer to these questions involves many factors, it is impossible to make an accurate prediction. But based on the real estate cycle theory, the international experience and the actual situation of Chinese, we can effect on regulation of real estate market and the prospect of making preliminary judgment: this city have taken the partition restriction policy on the one hand can directly suppress speculative investment demand, curb housing prices, stabilize the real estate market; on the other hand help to change radically prevent the real estate market, and promote the healthy and orderly development of macro economy. This judgment is mainly based on the following aspects:

First, curb speculation can effectively reduce the risk of accumulation.

The real estate market operation has its intrinsic mechanism and the general rule, usually experience expansion, prosperity, peak, contraction, decline, difficulties, and so on. American real estate economist Homer Hoyt based on the U.S. data found that the average interval between the two real estate recession for 18 years. Balaz's research in the UK, as well as the study of 14 countries, said the two recession was about 20 years apart. At present, China's real estate is basically in a long period of prosperity after the end of the stage of change and market differentiation period. Due to long-term fixed rate financing to occupy a higher proportion of the real estate market rate of interest rates are relatively slow reaction. However, the acceleration of the real estate market cycle will have a significant impact on the purchase of psychological. When people consider the purchase of real estate, it may be observed that the real estate prices are rising, and that they can not afford to buy before they can not afford to hurry to buy (Regret Theory). Real estate prices can attract new speculators, and real estate prices will lead to a decline in the outcome of the debt crunch, excessive cash preference and liquidity trap. Compared to the retail real estate and industrial real estate, private residential real estate market is the most easy to change, the trading volume is usually far higher than the price change.

From the perspective of the Chinese economy in the long run, but also in the stage of rapid urbanization, especially the flow of population flows to the economic growth of the city continues, but the pace has begun to slow down. And due to changes in the total demand and financing costs in the short term, bringing the rapid rise in housing investment and speculative demand. From the aggregate demand, the improvement of housing demand and investment demand together, both support each other, and jointly promote the rapid rise of hot city housing prices. From the perspective of financing costs, lower loan interest rates for some investment and speculative demand provides a condition. Coupled with a general market optimism and follow behavior, making the risk of increasing accumulation. Under this background, the city firm launched the purchase limited credit policy, not only for the market into the "cool agent", also can distinguish the basic housing demand and investment demand, curb short-term rapid rise in prices caused by the risk.