2016-05-26 14:31
China's real estate has entered the stage of Bo silly
Direct reporting network Beijing May 26th (Phoenix Finance) two quarter part of the focus of second tier cities is not expected to once again become the focus of the real estate market, "the king" has also attracted the attention of local governments. Up to now, including Suzhou, Hefei and Nanjing have made a certain position, but not strong enough.
Analysis of the many real estate people to Phoenix Finance said, now the property market is a capital game, first tier cities being squeezed out of the city led the gains, the hot money back for the second to enter the second tier cities. At the same time to guard against the sudden price decline after this round of hot.
Ground king frequency out, control attitude is not determined?
Centaline May 25, released the latest report said that as of May 23, China together to appear the king of 152 parcels last year, while only 95 cases. In the king of the 152 parcel the highest total of 50 cases, the second tier cities become absolute main force, accounted for 72%, Nanjing, only appeared in 13 cases, the total price of the king, and the first tier cities only 14 cases.
On the same day, according to the Hefei property market broke the news, Zhou Shanwu, vice mayor of Hefei to carry out research and development of real estate enterprises. On May 23 afternoon Hefei 2016 policy training course on the topic, Hefei housing the leadership of the relevant departments for the Hefei real estate market chaos of criticism of the guide, which criticized the Hefei Vanke.
May 23, Suzhou also announced that land prices ushered in the first land auction, two pieces of residential land for housing prices bid more than the highest price fixing and declared Liupai. May 24th, Nanjing City Land Bureau official said that the Suzhou experiment is not successful, Nanjing should not consider the follow-up to the policy.
As early as April, Nanjing has also issued a limit order, unlike the land price of Suzhou, Nanjing is the price limit for crazy rising prices. But in the next May, only one day in May 13th, Nanjing made three kings. This official xinhuanet.com bursts of two related news, at the "Nanjing land market data has been unable to explain the reason".
Financial columnist Qi Junjie told the Phoenix Financial reporter, the price is never a means of market regulation, the so-called limit is limited to the people to see. "Prices rise because the supply of land is not enough, the price limit will only allow the supply to further reduce the supply. So the control direction is obviously contrary to the purpose."
On the other hand, in May 9th published in the people's daily, the authority of the article also revealed a high level of real estate issues, pointed out that the real estate should be wary of the lessons learned. But the reality is that in May the second tier cities to the king frequency out, prices have been high, while the relevant regulatory policy has not yet been.
"This plainly or hope that prices rose a rose, more than selling the house, such as the priority development of Hefei Binhu District, inventory more, certainly hope that sold more than sell. In addition, the second tier cities also have steady growth considerations." Financial commentator Liu Xiaobo admitted to the Phoenix Financial reporter.
Liu Xiaobo analysts believe that short-term upper applied pressure is not too high, and monetary policy has shifted. Several hot second tier cities exist wait-and-see psychology, sold more than the sale of land to increase revenue, while waiting for monetary policy to play a greater role, so you don't have to introduction of administrative measures to regulate and control.
E-House Real Estate Research Institute researcher Xie Jinlong pointed out that according to the report, the real estate tax accounted for more than 50% of the local tax, this is a big cake for local government is inseparable. Moreover, under the pressure of the economic downturn, the real industry downturn, stimulating several elements of the economy, can force the point is not much, the real estate industry will be more popular.
With the scarcity of urban land, housing prices are becoming more and more to the point, and other places have been in the first quarter of the policy of regulation and control. Real estate companies will naturally look at the second tier cities.
Financial record sun Hongbin, chairman of China [- 0.20%] in May 16, has publicly admitted, 2015 SUNAC China began to avoid overheating of first tier cities in the land market, choose to enter the core city of Jinan, Nanjing, Chengdu, Xi'an and other second, completed in the city's land reserve layout.
Liu Xiaobo pointed out that at the end of 2015, Nanjing's financial institutions, the foreign currency deposits, the total amount of funds ranked ninth, and now it is likely to have jumped to fifth or sixth. This means that in one quarter of rising prices in the frenzy, a huge amount of hot money as 2015 into Shenzhen, a steady flow of Nanjing.
According to the official data of the Nanjing Bureau of statistics, the balance of foreign currency deposits of financial institutions in Nanjing in February amounted to RMB yuan, an increase of 23.1%.
Because only 2016 Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Statistics announced February data to February data for comparison, Hefei City in February of financial institutions in foreign currency deposits of 11763.96 billion yuan, an increase of 18%; Xiamen balance of 9076.05 billion yuan, year-on-year growth of 20%.
And in the first tier cities, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing in February the total amount of funds grew 18.2%, respectively, 15.2%, 7.7%. Liu Xiaobo analysis, said the hot money in a hurry, when they gathered in a city, the city's housing prices soared.
In view of the above situation, Qi Junjie said that the property market has entered a clear Bo silly phase, is the capital of the play. If the second tier cities to follow the purchase of the first tier cities, the hot money will bypass, to fry the second tier cities, or the second tier peripheral."
In the central has repeatedly expressed on the real estate issues, a second tier cities real estate crazy situation can maintain how long?
Xiao Bo Liu believes that the authority in a statement on May 9, house to return to live function, add leverage to the inventory approach is negative, at the same time, the broad money supply (M2) growth from a recent high of 14% reduced to 12.8%, the central bank's new loans and social financing amount growth rate dropped dramatically, monetary policy in "a touch on the brakes".
He accordingly judgment, on the whole this round of policy of the Chinese real estate bull market has basically come to an end, despite the hot cities, prices are still rising, but it will not last too long, after one to two quarters, the market will again, cool, and the next round purchase policy will be in the second tier cities hot Jianghu lake.
Qi Junjie also believes that the first tier cities will face a price without the city, because there is no real estate holding costs, prices will not easily fall, but the market turnover will gradually cool.
In addition, he believes that if the real estate tax can be implemented to launch, will become the last straw. Cities fell, all follow the trend of rising in the city include the second tier cities and surrounding, will all fall into the model, then the biggest problem is property is difficult to be realized, and left the real estate market may up to no more than 5 years. "Regardless of the wishes of the government is not to control, the investment will be corresponding to the wave cycle, just like the stock market, often in a burst of applause came to an abrupt end." 3
(original title: Chinese suddenly fall in real estate has entered the stage of fools alert after hot)
Editor: Xiao Shen
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