[direct reporting network Beijing August 4th] (economic information daily) monetary policy to become a hot topic of financial markets again. On the morning of August 3, Policy Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission in the official website released an article entitled "better play the investment on economic growth, the key role of the article, which referred to" choose to further the implementation of interest rate cuts, RRR policy ", sparked speculation. However, in the afternoon of 3, the article deleted the selection of the machine to further implement the rate cut, drop quasi policy, this sentence, once again sparked concern.

And on the same day, the central bank website news release, August 2nd to 3 am, 2016, the people's Bank of China branch bank governor held a forum. The meeting pointed out that the continued implementation of prudent monetary policy, maintaining a flexible and appropriate, timely pre tune fine-tuning, and enhance the effectiveness of the policy. Comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable level of liquidity, to achieve reasonable growth of money and credit and social financing scale.

This year, in addition to the 2 end of the month to drop quasi one, the central bank is basically the use of open market reverse repurchase, PSL, MLF and other ways to regulate market liquidity. In the macro economy is still facing downward pressure, CPI also maintained a low background, the future monetary policy will further cut interest rates down to become the focus of market attention.

In view of the Policy Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission delete selects machine the further implementation of the interest rates, lowering standards Policy "this sentence move, Kyushu International Securities chief economist Deng 3, said this may imply an important information: so far, RRR cut interest rates in the government and the central bank. He also said that China's economy does not need to be further stimulated by monetary policy, and the need for fiscal policy and structural reforms to achieve the healthy development of the economy. Since 2014, China has a serious shortage of assets, resulting in various asset price bubbles, has shown that monetary policy loose enough, he said, the water has enough, and now need to add face".

In fact, the marginal utility of monetary policy reduce has become the consensus of the industry, and most people think of flood irrigation is not desirable. Central bank data show that at the end of 6 this year, M2 and M1 growth rates were 11.8% and 24.6%, respectively, M2 and M1 growth rate difference appears to expand the trend. In this regard, the people's Bank of China survey of priests Chengsong into publicly said "from the perspective of the M1 and M2 monetary scissors trend, Chinese enterprises have emerged" liquidity trap "phenomenon." He further pointed out that this is mainly because the enterprises to invest in the currency to be invested". A large amount of money flows to the enterprise, but the enterprise did not find a suitable investment direction, so the money left in the current account.

Huatai Securities macro research team recently released research report, there is no interest rate cut in the second half of the space. Although CPI June return to the "1" era, but the real interest rate is still negative. Interbank liquidity is more abundant and flooding the traditional monetary stimulus, is not conducive to the implementation of the supply side reforms. The report also says, to consider the international capital flows, despite the slowdown in the pace of U.S. interest rate hike, but we judge to boot from the expected angle, the Fed will to expected pullback with and without ambiguities in September point rate hike, the devaluation of the renminbi and the capital outflow pressure still exists and lowered interest rates is not conducive to the stability of the exchange rate of our country.

Most of the industry is still more high expectations of financial policy". Huatai Securities report said, for tax reduction, China's fiscal policy is still operational space, the government sector leverage ratio is lower than developed countries, the financial deficit rate also increased space. Supply side of the objective requirements of the reform is to reduce tax fees, reduce the tax burden of enterprises can increase the margin of investment in enterprises, thereby enhancing the enthusiasm of enterprise investment. 3

(original title: the central bank set the tone for monetary policy market interest rates drop quasi expected rapid cooling)

Editor: Xiao Shen

Interpretation of the news hot spots, showing sensitive events, more exclusive analysis, in the "things" WeChat, scan two-dimensional code free reading.