2016-07-08 16:21
Differentiation or difficult to avoid because of the city into the key facilities to the property market
[straight news network Beijing on July 8 news] (China Securities Journal) this year first half of the property market turnover rebounded significantly, part of the housing sales performance eye-catching, to inventory and achieved initial results, but also around the "King" are frequent. The industry is expected in the second half of the city due to the policy, policy guidance or further highlight the local characteristics of differentiation will become even more obvious. In addition, due to the high base last year, as well as the high base price stage or too fast to limit the release of the transaction, the overall point of view, the second half of the sales growth or decline.
Rapid increase in sales performance
China Index Research Institute report shows that 1-5 months, the national real estate sales of 36775 yuan, an increase of 50.7%; the national commercial housing sales area of 47954 square meters, an increase of 33.2%. In addition, the first half of 115 housing prices more than 50 yuan, an increase of 46 over the same period last year, a total sales of 23397 yuan.
Grams and Swiss research center analyst Fang Ling said that in the first half of 2016, some of the second tier cities in the eyes of the people. Most companies as early as the last round of adjustment process, the focus of the investment will be transferred to the second tier cities, now just to enter the project harvest period. This laid the foundation for the first half of the first half of the enterprise sales growth.
Enjoysmart Institute think tank research center director Yan Yuejin said that housing prices in the first half sales better than expected, or it will affect the housing prices in the second half of the pricing, especially part of annual sales completed good housing prices, may in the fourth quarter of this year, the rapid price increases, take action will be more big.
Land market heat is not reduced
Grams and Swiss research center data show that in the first half of this year, a total of 110 cases of the total price, the price of the king, just six months that has more than 72 in 2009, the annual number of records to refresh the king of the year.
Shanghai Central Plains real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi said, "the king" although the scenery, but some of the phenomenon is worth vigilance. Prior to the land of Zhoupu Shanghai Poly Real estate to take a plot, and finally had to surrender control of the introduction of other joint development of housing prices. The reason behind this is the need to invest too much money, the need to find a partner to share the risk of. "And within 2-3 years, the region is difficult to rise in housing prices more than 50%, the enterprise is bound to face earnings pressure."
Ming source Estate Research Institute Vice President Liu CE believes that the land market, "the strong HENGQIANG" pattern will not change, the first tier cities is expected to will continue unpopular scene, King PinChu will is the norm. Land auction will become the mainstream housing prices battlefield, is subject to the pressure of high inventories, is expected to the third and fourth tier cities land trading is still to be relatively light, but in after the storage period are effectively improved, the land market will have a certain degree of warming.
Yan Yuejin also said that this part of the housing prices have not yet completed the relationship between land reserves, prices will continue to rise.
Differentiation characteristics or more obvious
Looking to the second half, Liu Ce believes that the price trend will show strong differentiation characteristics, but there is a certain difference between the first half and. For the first time, the first half of the increase is too large, second tier cities, is expected to be stable in the second half of the main, and even does not rule out a slight correction in the individual overheating zone. Secondly, for the first tier cities and provincial capital cities, benefit from good fundamentals, urban agglomeration effects, demand spillover and house prices conduction, is expected to still rise space, maintain a moderate growth trend. Finally, the three or four line of the city, under pressure from the high pressure on the stock prices is expected to remain unchanged. But the supply and demand relationship has been significantly improved in the three or four cities, prices are expected to have a certain rise in space.
Policy expectations, Liu Ce believes that the city's policy, according to local conditions, the policy direction may be further highlighted, from the "comprehensive easing" to adjust for the overall easing + partial tightening". For one, second tier cities, with the control policy landing, the overall market will return to reason. For the majority of three or four tier cities, to the inventory task is still arduous, especially the current macroeconomic downward pressure is still large.
Credit, financial 360 monitoring shows that in June the country's first suite average interest rate of 4.48%, a new record low. First securities analyst Wang Jianhui believes that the demand side of the industry continues to loose credit policy. Recent Hefei plans to improve Shoufu ratio, improve Beijing ICBC commercial and residential projects Shoufu proportion to 70%, regional hot limit credit policy appeared tightening signal, second half of differentiated credit regulation will become the key force in the market impact. Differentiation in the market, trading volume is difficult to continue the trend of rising prices; on the base of a high base, the second half of the transaction fell or difficult to avoid. 3
(original title: differentiation or difficult to avoid because the city is the key to the city facilities into the property market
Editor: Xiao Shen
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