2016-07-08 16:23

 

Tan Haojun: the devaluation of the renminbi is not China

 

[straight news network Beijing on July 8, news] (China Economic Net Tan Haojun) 7 April 5, Renminbi to us dollar exchange rate middle rate newspaper 6.6594, than the last trading day down 122 basis points, 6.66 mark approximation and refresh in December 2010, the lowest level since. In this regard, there are foreign media that the British off the European storm may be covered up a more worthy of the market is worried about the value of China's currency devaluation.
RMB devaluation, is indeed a matter of concern to the market. However, whether there is a more terrible than the British and European levels, may be a little exaggeration, not realistic. Especially the Republican presidential candidate in the United States trump to campaign, accusing China has been are in currency manipulation, to obtain the unreasonable export competitiveness advantages, is more nonsense, coupled with sin.
As everyone knows, the continued depreciation of the RMB, especially the sharp depreciation of China is no good. At least, more harm than good. First, the devaluation of the RMB may have a positive impact on exports, but the resulting capital outflows, may not be able to make up for the export of. Because the consumer in the whole market is relatively weak, and the EU because of the situation in the UK to take off the European economy under enormous pressure, the demand for Chinese products will also weaken the ability. Then, there will be no obvious improvement in exports. On the contrary, the decline in domestic production and demand caused by capital outflows may bring greater harm to the economy. So, China is unlikely to hope that the continued depreciation of the RMB, it is impossible to expect a significant depreciation of the rmb.
Second, the continued depreciation of the RMB to bring the impact of the capital market, it is even more exports can not make up for the. To know that the current capital market is not stable, investors have a serious lack of confidence in the market. If the phenomenon of continued devaluation of the RMB, so that capital outflows increased, then the negative impact on the capital market and the impact will increase, resulting in the market decline, the market value has shrunk, the decline in investor income. As in August last year, and in January this year, the two devaluation of the RMB, it has triggered a capital outflow phenomenon, which brings a certain impact on the capital market. From this point of view, China does not want the continued depreciation of the RMB, and hope that the RMB exchange rate can be relatively stable.
Moreover, the continued depreciation of the RMB against the international image of a serious injury, so that investors' confidence in the renminbi down. Especially in the case of the dollar, the yen appreciation, there is no reason for the continued depreciation of the RMB, in particular, there is no reason for a substantial depreciation. So the emergence of such a phenomenon, on the one hand may is international institutions do empty borrow the British off Europe and of the renminbi malicious short, damage the image of the RMB, and in order to obtain short benefit; on the other hand, the dollar and the yen is blind to see high, blind thrust on the appreciation of the channel, which also inadvertently promoted the devaluation of the renminbi, and not the Chinese government intends to allow the renminbi to depreciate.
Finally, the continued depreciation of the RMB will have a negative impact on domestic monetary policy. After a few years ago after a large number of currencies issued, the current domestic market liquidity has been relatively abundant, there is no condition to continue to issue currency in a relatively relaxed manner. But if the continued depreciation of the RMB, causing a massive outflow of capital will to the choice of monetary policy bring great pressure, increased a lot of difficulty, or not to put, how much, how to put, will be difficult. So, from this point of view, China is not necessary, it is not possible to artificially make the RMB devaluation.
It is also because the devaluation of the RMB to China's economic development is more harm than good. Therefore, worry even accuse China of take a laissez faire, promote the devaluation of the renminbi's argument is untenable. To know that although China's economy is still facing downward pressure, but also hope to promote the stability of China's economy through the expansion of exports. However, from the actual situation in recent years, China's economy is no longer dependent on exports as in the past, not to export as the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth. On the contrary, how to expand domestic demand and increase the effective investment, it has become the main driving force of China's economy in recent years. Not only that, but also make up for the gap left by the exit. This also means that the devaluation of the renminbi to increase exports, in China is not an option, at least not the main option.
In particular, the supply side structural reforms proposed by the government, Chinese innovation, Internet plus, is to promote the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of mode of economic growth, an important means of social transformation, resource utilization efficiency, enhance the economic vitality. The continued depreciation of the RMB, not only is not conducive to the use of these measures, but will drag on the Chinese economy. In such a case, it is also possible to take the initiative to promote the devaluation of the RMB it?
Of course, if the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, there may be a phased devaluation of the rmb. In the face of such a phenomenon, the Chinese central bank will not stand idly by, but will take active and effective measures to curb the continued depreciation of the RMB, and promote the RMB into a stable orbit. This also means that the current devaluation of the RMB, not more than the market tolerance, is still in the controllable range, China's central bank does not need to intervene, but not blind intervention. If the blind intervention, but is not conducive to the stability of the rmb.
Is used to devalue their currency to stimulate the economy of Japan, Abe economics in the case of tardy not effective, facing the British off Europe bring yen appreciation, will not frenzied more to push the yen, is worthy of attention. Otherwise, its impact on the world economy, especially the neighboring countries, the economic impact is considerable. 3
(original title: the devaluation of the renminbi is not China's desire)
Editor: Xiao Shen
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