Ouyang article: the market base of traditional direct selling is still large
[Beijing Direct News Network June 19] (Direct report network)The traditional direct selling here refers to the direct selling defined in the direct selling management regulations. Under the impact of wechat business, live broadcast and social e-commerce, the development of direct selling enterprises has encountered unprecedented difficulties. Some people say pessimistically that there is no market for traditional direct selling. In my opinion, this kind of pessimism is not good. Traditional direct selling is still a good way of sales and a good platform for employment. Although the direct market is shrinking at present, from the perspective of development, the market base of traditional direct selling is still very large.
From a macro perspective, China's potential consumer market is very large
China's residents have a strong desire for consumption, and the potential consumption market in the future is huge. Relevant data show that in 2018, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents is 28228 yuan, the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents is 19853 yuan, and the consumption tendency is as high as 70.3%, that is, the average per capita income of Chinese residents is more than 70% for consumption. Among them, the consumption tendency of rural residents is as high as 82.9%. In 2018, the retail sales of social consumer goods per capita in the United States reached 18517 US dollars, while the retail sales of social consumer goods per capita in China was about 4117 US dollars, only 23% of that in the United States. If China's per capita consumption level reaches the level of the United States, it means that China's market size will be four times that of the United States. Relevant international authorities also predict that China's potential market size is three to four times that of the United States.
Although China's consumption contribution rate has reached 76.2% in 2018, the consumption rate is only 53.6%, far below the level of more than 80% in developed countries. The high contribution rate of consumption means that the contribution of consumption to economic growth is huge and the driving force of consumption growth is strong. The low consumption rate means that the proportion of consumption in the whole economy still has room to be enlarged, the consumption is far from the top, and the high growth of consumption will continue. In the past 10 years, China's consumption rate has increased by 0.4 percentage points every year. If the 80% consumption rate of developed countries is taken as a high point and China's consumption contribution rate remains above 65%, it can last for 50 years to make the consumption rate peak. This means that there is still a lot of room to expand the driving role of consumption on economic growth in the future.
From the micro perspective, there is still a lot of room for direct selling incremental market
In the past 10 years, the total annual sales volume of China's direct selling enterprises has generally maintained at about 120 billion yuan. This figure is a special contribution of traditional direct selling to China's economic development. Then, in addition to the further consolidation of the stock market, how much space there is for the incremental market of direct selling? This is a problem that every direct selling enterprise needs to pay attention to. In my opinion, in the traditional direct marketing market, the space of incremental market is undoubtedly huge. This is because China not only has a huge consumer group with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, but also is in the peak period of urbanization and rapid popularization of information technology. The middle-income groups have higher consumption capacity and willingness, and the growth momentum of the future consumer market is strong. Therefore, at present, the traditional direct marketing market is far from the top, and the potential direct marketing market is still very large. For example, the development of health industry market and direct selling industry are just beginning. The central government has been encouraging healthy consumption, which determines that the market of health industry is a "cornucopia". Most of the health care products that direct selling enterprises supply to the market have been favored by the majority of consumers. But from the current situation, the development of health industry market is just the beginning for the direct selling industry, and there is still a lot of room for the improvement of annual turnover.
The healthy consumption of the elderly is an important part of the direct selling incremental market. According to a recent survey in Beijing, the elderly with heavy consumption of health care products are the main consumers of health care products, and the proportion of the elderly with moderate and light consumption is relatively high. At the same time, there are differences in consumption cognition, consumption attitude and consumption behavior between the severe group and the moderate group. According to the survey, although the elderly in the severe group are the main group of health care products consumption, and they have a high willingness to purchase health care products and a high awareness of consumption safety, it is necessary to build a standardized and orderly consumption environment so that the elderly in the severe group can consume at ease and promote the healthy development of health care products industry. At present, there are not many products for direct selling enterprises to promote healthy consumption of the elderly. Direct selling enterprises should develop healthy consumption of the elderly over 60 years old as an incremental market. If ignored, the incremental market of direct selling enterprises will be lost, which is a pity.